Kudra

Panic at the disco!

2007-05-04T18:43:30Z

Well, not really. That's the name of some emo band, who's music I've never heard. And while I'm seeing a heck of a lot of panic online about the oil crisis worldwide, I'm really not seeing a heck of alot of panic down here in the Land Downunder, though there are some ... well, political rumblings. Maybe it's because we're already some of the world's worst offenders when it comes to use of fossil fuels per capita [3rd highest in the world]: it's such an intrinsic part of our lifestyle, a 25% price hike isn't bothering most of us, especially here in WA where our incomes are on average at least 10% higher than the rest of the country, and we REALLY LIKE IRON, have lots of it in our backyard, and as a result for the time being, can afford a bit more for our transport if necessary.

In fact, apparently:

The pundits are fond of pointing out that gasoline prices in the US will have to go beyond $6 a gallon before gasoline is consuming a bigger share of the of the family budget than it was during the energy crises of the 1970’s.

Prices in the US are still shy of $4.50 a gallon - a ways to go yet before TSHTF for real...

So what is happening here? Our prices are around $1.50 - $1.70, depending where you are located. The big mental barrier of crossing the $1.50 mark wasn't so big after all, and prices for LPG have barely budged so far thanks to the price freeze, and that supply hasn't so far had any hiccups. If/when prices top $2 a litre, I'm going to expect to see some real anger and fear - especially if that also means shortages shortly to follow, or even the fear of shortages, which can be enough to spark real panic.

I am seeing a few more bicycles on my daily commute to work, but still only very rarely ebikes, I am not seeing mass panic, or even a hell of a lot of change. Why? Australia is the only developed country with significant energy exports, 70 percent of production is exported as coal, uranium and liquid natural gas in that order. As drowned_saved has mentioned, the Western Australian government has nationalized the natural gas reserves, and there is a lot of local confidence that we'll be fine, at least in the short-medium term. However, natural gas does have a history of very rapid decline, so while we have a good supply for now, and I already have several friends with LPG vehicles, you can be sure this step by the Premier is not going to go down well with Little Johnny. That's the only thing I'm seeing some expression of concern over.But US has announced that they aren't going to import any more oil, which is an unprecedented move, and takes the pressure off us for the time being, at least.

Still, I've always been a secessionist, and this is about the time a secession could actually be proposed with a hope of being achieved... maybe. People over here are realising what the stakes are, and that if carefully managed, our resources could allow our state to weather the crisis much better than many places.

The heavy rain of the last month has been a bit of a topic of conversation and some hope though. With drought conditions rather hideous in many parts of the country, the rain fall for April in Perth was 4 times the monthly average. If it heralds the start of a decently wet winter, that's one great boost for any victory gardens people may be considering starting. I wish I owned a house so I could be collecting rainwater and actually planting, but in my apartment that's probably going to be a bit difficult.

Tomorrow I'm going to do my weekly shop at City Farm Organic Market. It will be interesting to listen to conversations and see what effect the rise in prices has had on people here. Of course, most of those who'd shop there regularly were already well aware of the potential crisis we're now in, so there's unlikely to be much shock or indignation.

Quiet here, uncanny timing in SF for huge road disaster?

2007-04-30T07:54:25Z

Everything's quiet here. The overnight price rise in the US hasn't really made a dent on the local media, but then Oz is usually takes a while to catch up to the US - well, it has in the past. And from the sounds of things, the media over there aren't making much of a big deal, anyway. But then they didn't make much of a deal of $67 a barrel a short while ago, which last year would have sent alarm ripples everywhere. Now it's just - expected, nothing unusual! How high can it go before there are runs on gas stations? Where will the shortages start? We can't know at this stage, but if the warnings are true, it can't be long.

This article freaked the hell out of me though - this happened in the early hours of the morning on 29th April:

OAKLAND, California (AP) -- A gasoline tanker crashed and burst into flames near the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge on Sunday, creating such intense heat that a stretch of highway melted and collapsed...

... Nearly 75,000 vehicles use the portion of the road every day. But because the accident occurred where three highways converge, authorities said it could cause commuting problems for hundreds of thousands of people....

...In preparation for rush hour, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger authorized funding so that ferries, buses and the rail system could carry commuters free of charge during Monday's commute...

...State officials said motorists who try to take alternate routes Monday instead of relying on public transportation would face nightmarish commutes.

As I have friends in the Bay Area I am curious what effect this will have - will the timing mean it's even worse, or will people be turning to other forms of transport than the car almost immediately, because the traffic will be unbearable any other way? The timing is uncanny - almost as if the truck driver responsible knew what was coming, perhaps???? Maybe this is an attempt to artificially reduce demand locally in the Bay area?

Thoughts, anyone? Is it just me, or is the coincidence just damn eerie????

Not enough time.

2007-04-28T10:48:08Z

So, in my general checking of the worlds of the Intarweb, I came across this LJ community: worldwithoutoil. Seems these folks have been tipped off to a definite oil spike, or some serious event, with an exact date. I've added a few members *waves*.

People all over the world have been speculating for years. Some say we've already passed that point and we are simply on a rolling plateau with no way to go but down. But there have been no serious warnings of this sort. I half don't believe it. But perhaps I should. I've been expecting a sudden crisis of some kind for a while now. In fact, I really thought it was going to happen some time last year.

What did I do?

Not enough. Quite a significant amount, by many people's standards I expect, but I never felt it was enough. Changed to all renewable energy. Started eating organic again. Cycled more. Electrified my bicycle, my scooter is used once a month now. Given the wake up call to so many people. But still not enough.

April 30th. Day after tomorrow. I don't have time to leave, and I don't think it would be fair at this point to those around me, either. I should have done more earlier. I still feel I would be better off elsewhere, but I know there have been plans here too. What to do? Knowing the date, which we never knew before, doesn't necessarily help. Lifeboat communities are a sham. Go bush, and chances are things will be so much worse. I'm going to see how it plays out, and I have good friends here who are as aware of the potentials as I am.

I think I'll be buying a little bit of emergency food though, just in case. And maybe a couple of other things I'm going to be a bit more careful with. I have two days off work. Time to get busy.